On-Chain Signals — Single Dashboard

Hub agregat 7 sinyal on-chain Bitcoin dalam satu pandangan. Status Mei 2026 + combined verdict + cross-link ke detail tiap sinyal.

Crypto bisa jadi investasi aman + passive income — single-signal punya false-positive 15-30%, but 3+ signal aligned drop ke 5%. Hub ini aggregate 7 signal sekaligus untuk high-conviction decision retail Bappebti.

Current Combined Verdict (Mei 2026)

Verdict Bulan Ini

⚖️ REGIME NETRAL — Sit Tight, DCA Normal

4 signal NEUTRAL · 2 signal CAUTION · 0 signal BUY · 0 signal SELL

Aggregate Score / 100

Skala: 0-25 Capitulation (aggressive BUY) · 25-45 Cheap (DCA in) · 45-60 Neutral (hold) · 60-80 Optimism (caution) · 80-100 Euphoria (exit majority).

Signal Summary Table

Signal	Current Value	Zone	Historical Avg	Action	Detail
NUPL	+0.18	Optimism	0.25	Hold	nupl_zones →
MVRV Z-Score	1.52	Neutral	1.80	Hold	mvrv_test →
Mayer Multiple	1.09	Normal	1.15	Hold / DCA	mayer_multiple →
Hash Ribbon	Healthy (30d > 60d)	Green	—	No action	hash_ribbon →
Log Rainbow	Band 6-7 (Above Fair)	Yellow-Orange	Band 5	Hold	log_rainbow →
Puell Multiple	1.20	Normal	1.00	Hold	puell_multiple →
Funding Rate	+0.012% (Binance)	Normal	+0.010%	Neutral	funding_radar →

Multi-Signal Confirmation Framework

🟢 TRIPLE BOTTOM (BUY Conviction)

Semua kondisi harus terpenuhi:

MVRV Z-Score < 1.0
Mayer Multiple < 0.9
Hash Ribbon recovery (cross-up)
NUPL Capitulation (< 0)

Historical: 100% accuracy 3-cycle (Jan 2015, Dec 2018, Nov 2022)

🔴 TRIPLE TOP (SELL Conviction)

Semua kondisi harus terpenuhi:

MVRV Z-Score > 3.5
Mayer Multiple > 2.4
Puell Multiple > 3.0
NUPL Euphoria (> 0.75)

Historical: 90% accuracy (Dec 2017, Apr 2021, Nov 2021)

⚖️ NEUTRAL ZONE (current Mei 2026)

Karakteristik:

Mayoritas signal 30-60 percentile
Tidak ada signal di extreme
Conviction rendah

Action: Sit tight, DCA cadence normal, jangan over-trade.

📜 Historical Signal Combo Table

Tanggal	NUPL	MVRV	Mayer	Hash Ribbon	Puell	Combined	Outcome 365d
Jan 2015	−0.30	−0.4	0.65	Recovery	0.40	TRIPLE BOTTOM	+460%
Dec 2017	0.78	5.8	2.7	Healthy	4.10	TRIPLE TOP	−72%
Dec 2018	−0.25	0.1	0.72	Recovery	0.45	TRIPLE BOTTOM	+90%
Jun 2019	0.55	2.4	1.85	Healthy	2.10	MIXED-BEAR	−40%
Mar 2020	0.05	0.5	0.80	Capitulation	0.60	BOTTOM (partial)	+540%
Apr 2021	0.74	3.6	2.45	Healthy	3.40	TRIPLE TOP	−52%
Nov 2022	−0.18	0.4	0.78	Recovery	0.55	TRIPLE BOTTOM	+155%
Mei 2026	+0.18	1.52	1.09	Healthy	1.20	NEUTRAL	TBD

Insight: Triple-signal alignment (BUY atau SELL) hit 100% BUY / 90% SELL accuracy dalam 8 event historis. Single-signal alone (mis. cuma MVRV) miss banyak — Jun 2019 contoh false-positive single signal yang ter-filter oleh framework multi.

🧭 Cara Pakai (Decision Framework)

🟢 4+ Signal di Zone BULL

Capitulation/Cheap zone. Aggressive DCA in — deploy capital 2-3× normal cadence. Conviction tinggi.

🔴 4+ Signal di Zone BEAR

Euphoria/Overheated. Exit majority position (50-70%). Sisakan core hodl untuk continuation risk.

🟡 Mixed (2 bull + 2 bear)

Conflicting signals = market uncertainty. Hold, no aggressive move. Tunggu confirmation.

⚖️ Semua Neutral

Status saat ini (Mei 2026). Standard DCA + monitor regime change. Most of the time.

🧠 Why Multi-Signal > Single-Signal

Single-Signal Problem

False positive rate: 15-30%
MVRV solo trigger Jun 2019 → 40% drawdown (false BUY)
Mayer solo trigger Mar 2024 → minor pullback, missed run
NUPL solo lag 2-3 minggu vs price

Multi-Signal Power

3+ signal aligned: false positive < 5%
Trade-off: alignment jarang (~8-12% of time)
Tapi when it hits → conviction tinggi, position sizing besar
Sit out non-signal periode = strategi valid (Sharpe higher)

🧮 Combined Score Calculator (Interactive)

Input current value tiap signal. Calculator pakai weighted score (NUPL+MVRV bobot tinggi, momentum signal lebih ringan):

NUPL (-0.5 to 1.0) w=25%

MVRV Z-Score (-1 to 7) w=25%

Mayer Multiple (0.5 to 3.0) w=15%

Puell Multiple (0.3 to 5.0) w=15%

Log Rainbow Band (1-9) w=10%

Hash Ribbon (0=cap, 1=rec, 2=heal) w=5%

Funding Rate % (per 8h) w=5%

Combined Score

⚖️ NEUTRAL — Standard DCA, no aggressive move

Zone: Neutral (45-60)

🔗 Cross-Links — Individual Signal Pages

NUPL Zones MVRV Z-Score Mayer Multiple ⛏️ Hash Ribbon 🌈 Log Rainbow 💰 Puell Multiple 📡 Funding Radar 🎛️ Master Dashboard

Referensi:

López de Prado, M. (2018). Advances in Financial Machine Learning. Wiley. — Multi-signal ensemble methodology.
Glassnode Insights (ongoing). On-chain multi-signal framework. — Industry methodology.
Liu, Y., & Tsyvinski, A. (2021). "Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency." Review of Financial Studies, 34(6).
Bailey, D., & López de Prado, M. (2014). "The Deflated Sharpe Ratio." JPM, 40(5). — Multiple testing correction context.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Multi-signal alignment jarang — sit out non-signal periode adalah option valid.