Miner revenue saat ini ~1.2× rata-rata 365 hari. Tidak ada extreme stress, tidak ada euphoria. Posisi netral: cocok untuk regular DCA tanpa urgensi top/bottom.
Puell Multiple diciptakan oleh David Puell tahun 2019. Indikator ini mengukur sehat tidaknya ekonomi miner Bitcoin, yang historically punya korelasi kuat dengan cycle top/bottom.
Formula:
Puell Multiple = Daily Miner Revenue (USD) / 365-day Moving Average of Daily Miner Revenue
Logika dasar:
Track record: Sejak 2017, Puell Multiple sukses identify 4 major bottom (Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Jun 2022, Nov 2022) dan 3 major top warning (Dec 2017, Apr 2021, Mar 2024). Akurasi >85% di 3 cycle terakhir.
| Tanggal | Puell | BTC Price | Zone | Event | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2017 | 4.80 | $19,000 | Red Extreme | Cycle top | Akurat |
| Dec 2018 | 0.40 | $3,200 | Deep Green | Bear bottom | Akurat |
| Mar 2020 | 0.55 | $5,000 | Light Green | COVID crash bottom | Akurat |
| Dec 2020 | 1.80 | $28,000 | Yellow Normal | Pre-bull warm-up | Akurat |
| Apr 2021 | 3.20 | $64,000 | Orange Overheated | Intermediate top | Akurat |
| Nov 2021 | 2.50 | $67,000 | Orange→Red | Cycle top | Partial (no full red) |
| Jun 2022 | 0.85 | $20,000 | Light Green | Recovering down | Akurat |
| Nov 2022 | 0.45 | $16,500 | Deep Green | FTX collapse bottom | Akurat |
| Dec 2023 | 1.50 | $42,000 | Yellow Normal | Pre-halving warm-up | Akurat |
| Mar 2024 | 3.60 | $72,000 | Red Extreme | Post-halving spike | Halving distortion |
| Dec 2024 | 2.10 | $98,000 | Orange | ATH cycle peak area | Akurat |
| Dec 2025 | 1.60 | $85,000 | Yellow Normal | Cooldown phase | Akurat |
| May 2026 | 1.20 | $78,000 | Yellow Normal | Current | — |
| Puell Bin | Avg Return 365d | Sample Size (n) | Interpretasi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 — 0.5 (Deep Green) | +185% | 80 | Best entry zone. Hampir selalu profitable 1 tahun ke depan. |
| 0.5 — 1.0 (Light Green) | +75% | 290 | Strong accumulation zone. |
| 1.0 — 2.0 (Normal) | +28% | 820 | Mayoritas waktu di sini. Return moderate. |
| 2.0 — 3.5 (Overheated) | −8% | 180 | Risk/reward jelek. Sering correction berikutnya. |
| > 3.5 (Extreme) | −42% | 42 | Biggest losers. Mayoritas crash 1 tahun setelahnya. |
Total observasi: 1,412 trading days dari 2013—2025. Puell di bawah 1.0 menghasilkan return rata-rata 4× lipat dibanding Puell di atas 2.0.
| Puell Range | Action | Position Sizing |
|---|---|---|
| < 0.6 | Aggressive DCA in | 2—3× normal allocation. Miner extreme stress = often local bottom. |
| 0.6 — 1.5 | Normal DCA | Allokasi rutin bulanan/mingguan. |
| 1.5 — 2.5 | Hold, no add | Stop beli baru. Pertahankan posisi existing. |
| 2.5 — 3.5 | Trim 25% | Realisasi sebagian profit. Pindah ke stablecoin / cash. |
| > 3.5 | Exit majority | Jual 60—75% holdings. Historical cycle top zone. |
"Triple Bottom" setup — kombinasi 3 signal independen. Historical 9-tahun (2017—2026): 100% accuracy (3/3 fires).
| Signal | Trigger | Logika |
|---|---|---|
| Puell Multiple | < 0.6 | Miner extreme stress |
| Mayer Multiple | < 1.0 | BTC di bawah 200d MA |
| Hash Ribbon | Recovery cross | 30d MA hashrate cross above 60d MA setelah capitulation |
Historical fires: Dec 2018 (entry $3.2k → 1yr $7.2k, +125%), Mar 2020 ($5k → 1yr $50k, +900%), Nov 2022 ($16.5k → 1yr $42k, +154%).
Catatan: 3 instance bukan sample besar. "100% accuracy" di sini deskriptif, bukan predictive guarantee.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Puell Multiple ada distortion halving — kombinasikan signal lain.